Scientist · Author · Speaker
Climate and nature futures — with realism and hope
How our food, energy and economic systems can change fast enough to avoid the worst of the climate crisis — told through evidence, honesty about the risks, and clarity about where real progress is already happening.
British Academy Global Professor, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Visiting Professor, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University
Senior Research Fellow, Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Oxford
Talks and Interviews
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In the media
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Hundreds of experts urge Burnham to reject new North Sea drilling days before PM meets Trump for the first time
UK government urges citizens to ‘stockpile food’ amid threats from climate and hostile states
Heatwave forces farmers to abandon crops as harvests fail
What British food items are at risk due to extreme drought conditions
Britons will struggle to put food on table as heatwaves become the norm, scientists warn
Warning 1976-style heatwave could become normal
Books
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The Best of Times, The Worst of Times
Futures from the frontiers of climate science, told in paired chapters of pessimism and hope. The Indigo Press, 2020.
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Food and Sustainability
The interdisciplinary textbook, edited and co-authored. Oxford University Press, 2020.
Read more →Latest research
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Interprovincial trade in rice, wheat, and maize cut China's production-stage greenhouse gas emissions by 35.7 Mt CO2-eq (9.7%) and reactive nitrogen losses by 1.17 Mt N-eq (16.3%) in 2022 versus local self-supply, though seven provinces faced opposing carbon and nitrogen effects.Journal of Cleaner Production · 2026Aggregate gains and crop-driven trade-offs in the carbon and nitrogen footprints of China's interprovincial trade in rice, wheat and maizeInterprovincial trade in rice, wheat, and maize cut China's production-stage greenhouse gas emissions by 35.7 Mt CO2-eq (9.7%) and reactive nitrogen losses by…
Maps long-term carbon and biodiversity losses from agricultural land use worldwide, showing two-thirds of losses fall in one-third of the area and that animal-sourced foods drive 59% of carbon and 71% of biodiversity losses.Nature Food · 2026High-resolution carbon and biodiversity mapping shows correlated losses across space and agricultural productsMaps long-term carbon and biodiversity losses from agricultural land use worldwide, showing two-thirds of losses fall in one-third of the area and that…
Models transport infrastructure across 8872 urban and rural regions, projecting global stocks to reach 494 Gt by 2070. Urban density keeps material use efficient while depopulating rural areas grow inefficient, with new demand concentrated in the Global South and Northern materials going to maintenance.Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability · 2026Urban efficiency and rural redundancy: global transportation infrastructure resource demand from 2010–2070Models transport infrastructure across 8872 urban and rural regions, projecting global stocks to reach 494 Gt by 2070.
Maps China's data centres within the national electricity grid, finding their power use rose from 5.4 to 157.4 TWh between 2006 and 2023 as emissions reached 96.3 MtCO2, with a further 3.2 GtCO2 projected to 2050 and planned transmission avoiding 190 to 1335 MtCO2.Environmental Science & Technology · 2026From Gigabytes to Gigatons: China’s Data Centers and Their Carbon Footprint from 2006 to 2050Maps China's data centres within the national electricity grid, finding their power use rose from 5.4 to 157.4 TWh between 2006 and 2023 as emissions reached…
Maps the climate, water and land footprints of diets in 165 countries, finding healthier diets consistently have lower impacts. Across 72 socio-demographic subgroups, each 5% gain in diet quality (AHEI) is linked to 7.7% lower emissions, and the highest-emitting group (highly educated urban men aged 15 to 34, median 5.66 kgCO2e per day) emits roughly double the lowest (2.85).Nature Food · 2026Dietary environmental impacts and quality differ by socio-demographic characteristicsMaps the climate, water and land footprints of diets in 165 countries, finding healthier diets consistently have lower impacts.
Coupling a crop source–sink model with techno-economic analysis, vertical-farmed lettuce can undercut Dutch greenhouse production costs (≈€1.67 vs €2.35/kg) under advanced but achievable light-use targets, whereas tomato stays ~12% more expensive and needs faster crop cycles and higher light-use efficiency than achieved to date.Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · 2026Vertical farming economics: crop performance targets for cost-competitive vertical farmingVertical-farmed lettuce can already undercut Dutch greenhouse costs; tomatoes still need faster cycles and better light-use efficiency.