Scientist · Author · Speaker
Climate and nature futures — with realism and hope
How our food, energy and economic systems can change fast enough to avoid the worst of the climate crisis — told through evidence, honesty about the risks, and clarity about where real progress is already happening.
British Academy Global Professor, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Visiting Professor, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University
Senior Research Fellow, Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Oxford
Talks and Interviews
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In the media
All media →How climate change threatens food security and health
Are more food price increases on the way from El Niño?
‘Some aren’t going to make it’: how pressure on farmers threatens UK food security
UK’s preparation for food shortages is ‘woefully inadequate’, experts warn
British government ‘complacent about food as a national security matter’
UK ‘desperately needs mass food storage sites in case of national emergencies or war’
Books
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The Best of Times, The Worst of Times
Futures from the frontiers of climate science, told in paired chapters of pessimism and hope. The Indigo Press, 2020.
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Food and Sustainability
The interdisciplinary textbook, edited and co-authored. Oxford University Press, 2020.
Read more →Latest research
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Finds that if high- and middle-income countries shifted to the planetary health diet or its plant-richer variants, the EU and UK would free 58 to 78 million hectares of farmland and €28 to 36 billion a year in CAP subsidies, while farm employment falls 37 to 40% and profit losses concentrate where livestock is profitable.The Lancet Planetary Health · 2026Land use, common agricultural policy subsidies, and farm economic exposure under planetary health diet scenarios in Europe: a physical input–output modelling analysisFinds that if high- and middle-income countries shifted to the planetary health diet or its plant-richer variants, the EU and UK would free 58 to 78 million…
Finds that rebuilding after floods in Europe needs about 30 Mt of building materials a year, emitting about 9 MtCO2e, and that both could rise more than tenfold by 2080 under a moderate emissions scenario, mainly from coastal flooding, if flood defences are not upgraded.Nature Communications · 2026Building materials and emissions from rebuilding under increasing climate-driven flood hazardsFinds that rebuilding after floods in Europe needs about 30 Mt of building materials a year, emitting about 9 MtCO2e, and that both could rise more than…
Maps more than 1,400 urban resilience documents from 2000 to 2023 and finds over 60% come from China, the USA, the UK, and the Netherlands, with developed countries favouring ecological solutions and developing countries infrastructure and technology.Environmental Science & Policy · 2026Tracking the evolution of urban resilience: A systematic review of research themes and trends over two decadesMaps more than 1,400 urban resilience documents from 2000 to 2023 and finds over 60% come from China, the USA, the UK, and the Netherlands, with developed…
Compares the EU and US from 1990 to 2023 using a well-being framework drawn from five schools of thought. The US widened its income and productivity lead, but the EU caught up on life satisfaction and education, has led on life expectancy since 1999, and emits less than half the US's consumption-based CO2 per person.Ecological Economics · 2027Is Europe a laggard? Comparing the EU and the US using an interdisciplinary well-being frameworkCompares the EU and US from 1990 to 2023 using a well-being framework drawn from five schools of thought.
Argues that governments need a shared framework to reconcile security assessments warning of ecosystem collapse with fiscal models putting UK GDP losses near 5% at 3 °C by the 2070s, because under-preparing for irreversible harm costs far more than over-preparing.Nature Climate Change · 2026Governments must reconcile dissonant climate assessment approachesArgues that governments need a shared framework to reconcile security assessments warning of ecosystem collapse with fiscal models putting UK GDP losses near…
Projects China's fossil fuel emissions at 98.9 to 148.5 GtCO2e over 2024 to 2050 under existing plans, and shows that sequencing extraction infrastructure retirements by emissions could avoid 3.8 to 4.8 GtCO2e while adding 4 to 6 million job-years and cutting net system costs by about US$34 to 71 billion.iScience · 2026Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in ChinaProjects China's fossil fuel emissions at 98.9 to 148.5 GtCO2e over 2024 to 2050 under existing plans, and shows that sequencing extraction infrastructure…