Research

@article{Cao2025,

title = {Closing the global sand circularity gap needs a systems approach},

author = {Zhi Cao and Chunli Chu and Jia Liu and Xiaoke Su and Xiaoyang Zhong and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101199},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101199},

issn = {25903322},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

journal = {One Earth},

volume = {8},

number = {2},

pages = {101199},

publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},

abstract = {Sand is the most-mined mineral globally and yet demand is set to increase. With significant environmental and societal consequences driven by sand extraction, facilitating sand circularity to maximize the reuse and recycling of aggregates, particularly from waste from construction and demolition, where sand is primarily used, becomes imperative. However, a systemic understanding of such reuse and recycling potential toward achieving circularity remains underexplored. In this review, we investigate this potential by examining the existing literature to evaluate the difference between the inflow (demand) and the outflow (end-of-life for reuse and recycling) of concrete aggregates. Although end-of-life aggregates are projected to increase nearly five-fold by 2060, they continue to fall short of demand by 11.4 Gt. This disparity, coupled with low rates of secondary aggregate use, will likely perpetuate the sand circularity gap for decades, especially in lower-income regions. Bridging this gap demands a comprehensive systems approach with significant coordination among stakeholders.},

keywords = {circularity gap, global sand crisis, material efficiency strategies, stakeholders, systems approach},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Blanco2025,

title = {A framework for guiding safe and sustainable-by-design innovation},

author = {Carlos Felipe Blanco and Paul Behrens and Martina Vijver and Willie Peijnenburg and Joris Quik and Stefano Cucurachi},

doi = {10.1111/jiec.13609},

issn = {15309290},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

urldate = {2025-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},

pages = {47–65},

abstract = {Assessing the safety and sustainability of novel technologies while they are still in the early research and development stages is the most effective way to avoid undesired outcomes. However, the journey from idea to market is highly uncertain and involves intensive trial and error as technology developers attempt to optimize material choices and product configurations. Designs evolve quickly, and assessing their risks and impacts while numerous factors remain undetermined is challenging. The standard practice is to evaluate a limited subset of scenarios that can guide design choices. However, selecting scenarios from hundreds of undetermined factors without a systematic sensitivity screening may leave out important improvement opportunities. To provide well-informed guidance, the evaluated scenarios should be selected based on factors that are most influential to the safety and sustainability impacts of the technology. We propose an approach that accomplishes this by incorporating a wide spectrum of undetermined factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic to the technology design. The assessment models are then screened for highly-sensitive factors using global sensitivity analysis. Strategies to reduce uncertainty on highly influential factors are proposed for subsequent iterations, and the residual factors for which uncertainty cannot be further reduced yet remain influential are selected as a basis for proposed “sensitive scenarios” and improvement roadmaps. We demonstrate the framework with an emerging photovoltaics case study. Over a hundred uncertain factors are reduced to less than five which, if optimized, would substantially improve the future safety and sustainability performance of the technology as well as reduce the uncertainty around it.},

keywords = {emerging technologies, innovation, prospective life cycle assessment, risk assessment, SSbD, uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhang2024,

title = {The climate opportunities and risks of improving building envelopes across 1,677 Chinese cities},

author = {Yufei Zhang and Mengyuan Dang and Chunli Chu and Paul Behrens and Peter Berrill and Xiaoyang Zhong and Rui Jing and Nuoa Lei and Hongyuan Jia and Lixiao Zhang and Chaofeng Shao and Eric Masanet and Meiting Ju and Lirong Liu and Weiqiang Chen and Zhi Cao},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100269},

doi = {10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100269},

issn = {29497906},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Cell Reports Sustainability},

volume = {1},

number = {12},

pages = {100269},

publisher = {The Authors},

abstract = {The global building sector consumes approximately 30% of final energy, making it crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation. International calls for enhancing building energy efficiencies are growing, focusing on strategies such as energy-efficient building envelopes through renovation and replacement of older structures, along with electrification and fuel switching. However, the energy-saving potential of these improvements remains uncertain due to the complex interplay of building stock characteristics and climatic conditions. Here, we diagnose the compound effects of envelope improvements and climate change on China's housing energy demand using a physics-based building energy model with fine spatial and temporal granularity, covering 1,677 sub-province-level cities. Our model shows that envelope improvements play very different roles in ameliorating climate change impacts on housing energy use across the country, highlighting the need for building climate-resilient energy supply and pursuing alternative energy efficiency strategies in less climate-resilient regions.},

keywords = {building energy, building envelopes, climate change, cooling demand, heating demand, stock dynamics, surrogate modeling},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jansen2024,

title = {Review Beyond GDP : a review and conceptual framework for measuring sustainable and inclusive wellbeing},

author = {Annegeke Jansen and Ranran Wang and Paul Behrens and Rutger Hoekstra},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00147-5},

doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00147-5},

issn = {2542-5196},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},

volume = {8},

number = {9},

pages = {e695–e705},

publisher = {The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rum2024,

title = {A comprehensive Beyond-GDP database to accelerate wellbeing , inclusion , and sustainability research},

author = {Irlan A Rum and Rutger Hoekstra},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04006-4},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-024-04006-4},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Scientific Data},

number = {Cml},

pages = {1–10},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bryant2024,

title = {The Dublin Declaration fails to recognize the need to reduce industrial animal agriculture},

author = {Chris Bryant and Harry Aiking and Roberta Alessandrini and Paul Behrens and Felix Creutzig and Gidon Eshel and Rosemary Green and Nicholas Hutchings and Adrian Leip and Ron Milo and Pete Smith and Hannah Zanten},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-01054-2},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-024-01054-2},

issn = {26621355},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

volume = {5},

number = {October},

pages = {799–801},

publisher = {Springer US},

abstract = {The framework presented in the Dublin Declaration has generated controversy by advocating for maintaining or increasing livestock numbers. The serious and acute harms associated with global livestock production today bring the goals of the declaration into dispute.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Shepon2024,

title = {The environmental and social opportunities of reducing sugar intake},

author = {Alon Shepon and Zhongxiao Sun and Tamar Makov and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2314482121},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.2314482121},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

volume = {121},

pages = {2017},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Blanco2024,

title = {Environmental Science Processes & Impacts A prospective ecological risk assessment of high- e ffi ciency III – V / silicon tandem solar cells †},

author = {C F Blanco and J T K Quik and M Hof and A Fuortes and Paul Behrens and S Cucurachi},

doi = {10.1039/d3em00492a},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science Processes & Impacts},

publisher = {Royal Society of Chemistry},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Verkuijl2024,

title = {FAO's 1 . 5 ° C roadmap for food systems falls short},

author = {Cleo Verkuijl and Jan Dutkiewicz and Laura Scherer and Paul Behrens and Michael Lazarus and Maria Jose Hotzel and Rebecca Nordquist and Matthew Hayek},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00950-x},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-024-00950-x},

isbn = {4301602400950},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

volume = {2100},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Kortleve2024,

title = {Over 80 % of the European Union ' s Common Agricultural Policy supports emissions-intensive animal products},

author = {A. Kortleve and Jose M Mogollon and Helen Harwatt and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-024-00949-4},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

volume = {11},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{VanEngelenburg2024,

title = {TRIPI: A global dataset and codebase of the total resources in physical infrastructure encompassing road, rail, and parking},

author = {Martijn Engelenburg and Sebastiaan Deetman and Tomer Fishman and Paul Behrens and Ester Voet},

doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2024.110387},

issn = {23523409},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Data in Brief},

volume = {54},

publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},

abstract = {Construction materials are associated with significant environmental and resource impacts. The circular use of materials already in use as stocks may provide an opportunity to reduce these impacts. We provide a dataset describing the potential global urban mine consisting of transportation infrastructure in an open database based on geospatial data from OpenStreetMaps. We reveal the significant opportunities of the embedded materials in this huge stock. With this Total Resources in Physical Infrastructure, or TRIPI, the database we provide easy access to a global dataset covering 175 countries and sub-regions, allowing researchers to select an area of study, and find the location as well as the material composition of the physical infrastructure. Material stocks are reported on a national level and commonly used regional aggregations. Material stocks are reported per kg, kg per capita, and kg per area; and for the physical type of infrastructure that is available in kilometres and area (km2). This dataset can be used in various research applications such as Material Flow Analysis, Material stock inventories, Country-level comparisons of infrastructure density, and others, and inform policy on harnessing the opportunities of the urban mine.},

keywords = {Construction materials, Network, Spatial, Stocks, Transportation, Urban mine},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jin2024,

title = {Virtual Water Embodied in Interregional Energy Trade in China : A City-Level Analysis},

author = {Yi Jin and Cuiyang Feng and Rong Yuan and Jialiang Yang and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c10455},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environ Sci Technol},

keywords = {energy system, input, output, trade, virtual water, water stress},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Coudard2024,

title = {The Global Environmental Benefits of Halving Avoidable Consumer Food Waste},

author = {Antoine Coudard and Zhongxiao Sun and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c04140},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environ Sci Technol},

keywords = {3, b, consumer food waste, embedded environmental impacts, mrio, sdg 12, sustainable food system},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Behrens2024,

title = {Enforcing and improving water data reporting in the energy system is urgently needed},

author = {Paul Behrens and Laura Scherer and Ranran Wang and Jin Yi and Martin Drews and Morten Andreas and Dahl Larson and Christian Schaible},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2024.100102},

doi = {10.1016/j.nxener.2024.100102},

issn = {2949-821X},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Next Energy},

volume = {2},

number = {July 2023},

pages = {100102},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

keywords = {Climate impacts, Energy system modelling, Water footprints},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wang2023,

title = {The legacy environmental footprints of manufactured capital},

author = {Ranran Wang and Edgar G. Hertwich and Tomer Fishman and Sebastiaan Deetman and Paul Behrens and Wei-qiang Chen and Arjan Koning and Ming Xu and Kira Matus and Hauke Ward and Arnold Tukker and Julie B. Zimmerman},

url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2216830120/-/DCSupplemental.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216830120},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.2218828120},

isbn = {1211925110},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

pages = {2023},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jiang2023,

title = {Additional north-south differences in China revealed by the Planetary Pressure-Adjusted Human Development Index},

author = {Meng Jiang and Paul Behrens and Le Lyu and Zhipeng Tang and Dingjiang Chen and Yuheng Cao and Pu Gong and Wenji Zhou and Yongheng Yang and Arnold Tukker and Edgar Hertwich},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107191},

doi = {10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107191},

issn = {0921-3449},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Resources, Conservation & Recycling},

volume = {198},

number = {July},

pages = {107191},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

keywords = {hdi, human development index, Human Development Index (HDI), Planetary Pressure-A, planetary pressure-adjusted human develop},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Nijnens2023,

title = {Energy transition will require substantially less mining than the current fossil system},

author = {Joey Nijnens and Paul Behrens and Oscar Kraan and Benjamin Sprecher},

doi = {10.1016/j.joule.2023.10.005},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Joule},

pages = {1–6},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Tukker2023,

title = {Commentary Circular construction : Six key recommendations},

author = {Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens and Sebastiaan Deetman and Mingming Hu and Elizabeth Migoni Alejandre and Marc Van Der},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.021},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.021},

issn = {2590-3322},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {One Earth},

volume = {6},

number = {11},

pages = {1425–1429},

publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Tukker2023a,

title = {Circular construction: Six key recommendations},

author = {Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens and Sebastiaan Deetman and Mingming Hu and Elizabeth Migoni Alejandre and Marc Meide and Xiaoyang Zhong and Chunbo Zhang},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.021},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.021},

issn = {25903322},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {One Earth},

volume = {6},

number = {11},

pages = {1425–1429},

publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rodrigues2023,

title = {The short-term impact of US-China trade war on global GHG emissions from the perspective of supply chain reallocation},

author = {F D Rodrigues and Juan Wang and Paul Behrens and Rong Yuan},

doi = {10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106980},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Impact Assessment Review},

volume = {98},

number = {August 2022},

keywords = {china-us trade conflicts},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Behrens2023,

title = {Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030},

author = {Chengjian Xu and Paul Behrens and Paul Gasper and Kandler Smith and Mingming Hu and Arnold Tukker and Bernhard Steubing},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-35393-0},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {119},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhao2023,

title = {The importance of flexible hydropower in providing electricity stability during China's coal phase-out},

author = {Ziwen Zhao and Xinjun Ding and Paul Behrens and Jianling Li and Mengjiao He and Yuanqiang Gao and Gongcheng Liu and Beibei Xu and Diyi Chen},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120684},

doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120684},

issn = {03062619},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Applied Energy},

volume = {336},

number = {November 2022},

pages = {120684},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

abstract = {A rapid coal phase-out is critical if China is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, this presents a significant challenge in maintaining system flexibility as the number of coal power stations reduce and renewable energy penetration increases. Here we analyze the interactions between flexibly operating hydroelectric facilities in balancing the decommissioning of a typical 600 MW coal-fired power unit across three different provinces with different electricity mixes. Rather than using a constant parameter for the carbon emission intensity for coal, as used in previous studies, we use dynamic intensities across different output levels. Accounting for the higher emission intensities of coal power plants running at below optimal efficiency to provide flexibility increases emissions from 3.4 % to 11.1 % depending on the region. The coal phase-out lowers flexibility indicators, with loss-of-load increasing in the full phase-out scenario in the absence of mitigating technologies such as electricity storage. Flexible hydropower eases peak demand issues significantly and the operating range of hydro-units has no significant effect on system flexibility or emissions. Overall, hydropower shows large potential in supporting decarbonization while maintaining system flexibility, especially for coal-dominated countries with abundant hydropower resources.},

keywords = {Carbon emission, Coal phase-out, Flexibility operational range, Hydropower flexibility, Transient process},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Yuan2022,

title = {A global overview of developments of urban and rural household GHG footprints from 2005 to 2015},

author = {Rong Yuan and Joao F D Rodrigues and Juan Wang and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150695},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150695},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {806},

pages = {150695},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

keywords = {Consumption structure, Household GHG footprints, Urban-rural differences, Urbanization},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Yuan2022a,

title = {The statistical projection of global GHG emissions from a consumption perspective},

author = {Rong Yuan and Joao F. D. Rodrigues and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.09.021},

doi = {10.1016/j.spc.2022.09.021},

issn = {23525509},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Sustainable Production and Consumption},

volume = {34},

pages = {318–329},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sun2022c,

title = {Adoption of plant-based diets across Europe can improve food resilience against the Russia – Ukraine conflict},

author = {Zhongxiao Sun and Laura Scherer and Qian Zhang and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-022-00634-4},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

number = {April},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhong2022,

title = {Increasing material efficiencies of buildings to address the global sand crisis},

author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Sebastiaan Deetman and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-022-00857-0},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

number = {3},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Menacho2022,

title = {A triple bottom line assessment of concentrated solar power generation in China and Europe 2020 – 2050},

author = {A J Hahn Menacho and J F D Rodrigues and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112677},

doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2022.112677},

issn = {1364-0321},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},

volume = {167},

number = {June},

pages = {112677},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

keywords = {Concentrated solar power, Environmental impact, Input-output analysis, Learning curve, Socio-economic impact, Solar energy},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sun2022b,

title = {Global Human Consumption Threatens Key Biodiversity Areas},

author = {Zhongxiao Sun and Paul Behrens and Arnold Tukker and Martin Bruckner and Laura Scherer},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.2c00506},

issn = {15205851},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science and Technology},

abstract = {Key biodiversity areas (KBAs) are critical regions for preserving global biodiversity. KBAs are identified by their importance to biodiversity rather than their legal status. As such, KBAs are often under pressure from human activities. KBAs can encompass many different land-use types (e.g., cropland, pastures) and land-use intensities. Here, we combine a global economic model with spatial mapping to estimate the biodiversity impacts of human land use in KBAs. We find that global human land use within KBAs causes disproportionate biodiversity losses. While land use within KBAs accounts for only 7% of total land use, it causes 16% of the potential global plant loss and 12% of the potential global vertebrate loss. The consumption of animal products accounts for more than half of biodiversity loss within KBAs, with housing the second largest at around 10%. Bovine meat is the largest single contributor to this loss, at around 31% of total biodiversity loss. In terms of land use, lightly grazed pasture contributes the most, accounting for around half of all potential species loss. This loss is concentrated mainly in middle- and low-income regions with rich biodiversity. International trade is an important driver of loss, accounting for 22-29% of total potential plant and vertebrate loss. Our comprehensive global, trade-linked analysis provides insights into maintaining the integrity of KBAs and global biodiversity.},

keywords = {biodiversity loss, countryside species-area relationship, international trade, land-use intensity, multiregional input-output analysis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jiang2022,

title = {Different Material Footprint Trends between China and the World in 2007-2012 Explained by Construction- and Manufacturing-associated Investment},

author = {Meng Jiang and Paul Behrens and Yongheng Yang and Zhipeng Tang and Dingjiang Chen and Yadong Yu and Lin Liu and Pu Gong and Shengjun Zhu and Wenji Zhou and Bing Zhu and Arnold Tukker},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.011},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.011},

issn = {25903322},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {One Earth},

volume = {5},

number = {1},

pages = {109–119},

publisher = {The Author(s)},

abstract = {Economic prosperity is vital to human development but relies heavily on material extraction, which causes environmental degradation. To successfully decouple growth from degradation, it is essential to identify the primary drivers of countries' material footprints (MFs). However, such understanding remains limited due to the complexities of investment- versus consumption-driven growth. Here, we focus on the MF of China between 2007 and 2012, which was responsible for 24%–30% of global material use. We adopt input-output models that consider trade and classify investment/consumption to estimate, at the province level, the relationship between MFs and the Human Development Index (HDI). Results show that during 2007–2012, China's per capita MF mirrored its HDI and increased by nearly 20%. This is especially prominent in poorer provinces. We further find that it was investments, particularly capital investments associated with construction and manufacturing, that dominated China's MF rather than a consumption-driven demand. Given vast infrastructure gaps in emerging economies and post-pandemic investment plans, these findings emphasize the need for a better understanding of the drivers of growth.},

keywords = {capital investment, China, circular economy, human development, Material footprint, resource efficiency},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jin2022,

title = {Climate change and CCS increase the water vulnerability of China's thermoelectric power fleet},

author = {Yi Jin and Laura Scherer and Edwin H Sutanudjaja and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123339},

doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2022.123339},

issn = {0360-5442},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Energy},

volume = {245},

pages = {123339},

publisher = {The Authors},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jin2022a,

title = {Biodiversity Loss from Freshwater Use for China's Electricity Generation},

author = {Yi Jin and Paul Behrens and Arnold Tukker and Laura Scherer},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c07155},

issn = {0013-936X},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},

abstract = {Electricity generation has two major, under-investigated impacts on freshwater biodiversity due to its water use: the consumption of freshwater and thermal emissions to freshwater. Here, we analyze the spatiotemporal freshwater biodiversity impacts of China's electric power system and the driving factors for these impacts. We show that between 2008 and 2017, the freshwater consumption of electricity generation peaked in 2013 (13.6 Gm3). Meanwhile, the freshwater consumption factor of China's electricity generation decreased from 3.2 to 2.0 L/kWh. However, due to increasing thermal emissions, the biodiversity loss via freshwater use increased from 1.1 × 108 in 2008 to 1.6 × 108 PDF m3 year. The overall biodiversity loss per unit of electricity generation decreased from 3.2 × 10-5 to 2.5 × 10-5 PDF m3 year/kWh. Biodiversity loss from thermal pollution is 60% higher than that driven by water consumption. Electricity transmission results in the shifting of biodiversity impacts across regions. The results show that 15% of total biodiversity loss was embedded in transmission networks. In terms of electrical power system drivers of biodiversity loss, the total generation was the main driving factor of the increase in loss (rather than shifts in generation type, for example). Our results indicate the necessity of assessing the biodiversity impacts of electricity generation and incorporating them into energy system planning.},

keywords = {biodiversity impacts, power generation, Power transmission, thermal emissions, water consumption},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sun2022,

title = {Dietary change in high-income nations alone can lead to substantial double climate dividend},

author = {Zhongxiao Sun and Laura Scherer and Arnold Tukker and Seth A Spawn-lee and Martin Bruckner and Holly K Gibbs and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-021-00431-5},

isbn = {4301602100},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sun2022a,

title = {Shared and environmentally just responsibility for global biodiversity loss},

author = {Zhongxiao Sun and Paul Behrens and Arnold Tukker and Martin Bruckner and Laura Scherer},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107339},

doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107339},

issn = {0921-8009},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Ecological Economics},

volume = {194},

pages = {107339},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

keywords = {biodiversity loss, Environmental Justice, Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis, Responsibility Sharing},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhong2021ab,

title = {Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060},

author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Mingming Hu and Sebastiaan Deetman and Bernhard Steubing and Hai Xiang Lin and Glenn Aguilar Hernandez and Carina Harpprecht and Chunbo Zhang and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112677 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123339 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.011 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107339 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127098 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sci},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26212-z},

issn = {20411723},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {12},

number = {1},

pages = {1–10},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

address = {Copenhangen},

edition = {1},

abstract = {Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.},

keywords = {Acoustic measurements, adaptation measure, Animal husbandry, Beach sampling, Beach sediment, beach sediment citizen science, Benefits, biodiversity impacts, biodiversity loss, Black carbon, capital investment, Carbon emissions, Caribbean, China, china-us trade conflicts, circular economy, Citizen science, climate change, CO2 emissions, CO2emissions, Community, Complex terrain, Concentrated solar power, Consultation, Consumption structure, countryside species-area relationship, Cress (Lepidium sativum), Decomposition analysis, Decoupling analysis, Desulfurization technologies, Economic and social impacts, Electricity generation, Electricity sector, Electricity system, Emission projections, energy footprint, Energy models, Energy scenarios, Energy systems, Energy technology, Energy transition, energy use, energy water nexus, Energy-water nexus, Environmental, Environmental impact, environmental inequality, Environmental Justice, Environmentally extended multiregional input-outpu, EU countries, Europe, Exposure concentration, Extraction, Feed-in tariffs, Feedback and spillover effects, Flow curvature, food system, Historical drivers, Household carbon emissions, Household GHG footprints, human development, Hybrid input-output analysis, Hydraulic unbalanced forces, hydro-turbine governing system, Hydroelectric generating systems, Income inequality, Industrial CO2 emissions, industrial ecology, Input-output analysis, input–output analysis, international trade, Investment, Investment and opportunity costs, Land, Land degradation, land-use intensity, Learning curve, Lesser Antilles, Lidar observations, Lidars, Life cycle assessment, Low-carbon electricity technology, Material footprint, Mathematical model, Method standardization, Microplastics, Mineral resources, Mining, Modal interactions, MRIO model, Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis, Multi-regional input-output model, multiregional input-output analysis, Nano- and micron-sized plastics, Non-fossil electricity, Operational, Perceptions, Plastic pollution, Policy goals, Poverty, Power density, power generation, Power plants, Power transmission, Primary crops, Public transit, Rebound, Remote sensing, renewable energy policy, resource efficiency, Responsibility Sharing, Sectoral analysis, Sharing economy, SO2 emission reduction, Socio-economic impact, Sodar, Solar energy, Spatial decomposition analysis, Spatial impact, Spatially explicit, Standard operating procedure, Sublethal impacts, Subnational, Subsystem input-output model, Sustainable consumption, techno-economic evaluation, Terrestrial systems, thermal emissions, Urban-rural differences, Urbanization, Vascular plant, Vulnerable passengers, water basin, water consumption, Water footprint, Water scarcity, Wind, Wind energy},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Egusquiza2021,

title = {The potential for photovoltaic-powered pumped-hydro systems to reduce emissions , costs , and energy insecurity in rural China},

author = {Eduard Egusquiza and Beibei Xu and Diyi Chen and Paul Behrens and Edoardo Patelli},

doi = {10.1016/j.ecmx.2021.100108},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Energy Conversion and Management},

volume = {11},

keywords = {techno-economic evaluation},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhong2021,

title = {The evolution and future perspectives of energy intensity in the global building sector 1971-2060},

author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Mingming Hu and Sebastiaan Deetman and Joao F D Rodrigues and Xiang Lin and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127098},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127098},

issn = {0959-6526},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

volume = {April},

pages = {127098},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Chen2021,

title = {A review of dynamic models and stability analysis for a hydro-turbine governing system},

author = {Diyi Chen and Feng Li and Paul Behrens and Eduard Egusquiza},

doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2021.110880},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},

volume = {144},

number = {April 2020},

keywords = {hydro-turbine governing system},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jin2021,

title = {The energy-water nexus of China ' s interprovincial and seasonal electric power transmission},

author = {Yi Jin and Paul Behrens and Arnold Tukker and Laura Scherer},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116493},

doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116493},

issn = {0306-2619},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Applied Energy},

volume = {286},

number = {January},

pages = {116493},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

keywords = {Electricity system, Power plants, Power transmission},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bamberger2021a,

title = {Environmental impacts of the nutrition transition and potential hunger eradication in emerging countries},

author = {Max Bamberger and Paul Behrens and Laura Scherer},

doi = {10.1007/s11625-020-00887-7},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Sustainability Science},

volume = {16},

pages = {565–579},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhong2021a,

title = {Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060},

author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Mingming Hu and Sebastiaan Deetman and Bernhard Steubing and Hai Xiang Lin and Glenn Aguilar Hernandez and Carina Harpprecht and Chunbo Zhang and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26212-z},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

number = {2021},

pages = {1–10},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jiang2020a,

title = {Improving Subnational Input–Output Analyses Using Regional Trade Data: A Case-Study and Comparison},

author = {Meng Jiang and Lin Liu and Paul Behrens and Tao Wang and Zhipeng Tang and Dingjiang Chen and Yadong Yu and Zijian Ren and Shengjun Zhu and Arnold Tukker and Bing Zhu},

url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c04728},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c04728},

issn = {0013-936X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-10-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},

volume = {54},

number = {19},

pages = {12732–12741},

abstract = {Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IO) is widely used for evaluating environmental performance (i.e., footprint) at a national level. Many studies have extended their analyses to the subnational level to guide regional policies. One promising method is to embed nationally disaggregated input-output tables, e.g., nesting a provincial level table, into a global multiregional input-output table. However, a widely used approach to environmental assessment generally disaggregates the trade structure at the national level to the provincial level using the same proportions (proportionality assumption). This means that the subnational spatial heterogeneities on international trade are not fully captured. By calculating the Chinese provincial material footprint (MF) based on two approaches-the proportionality assumption and the actual customs statistics-in the same framework, we evaluate the quantitative differences when the proportionality assumption is addressed. By computing MF for 23 aggregated resources across 30 Chinese provinces, our results show for countries with large material flows like China, estimating subnational-level international trade by proportionality assumption may lead to significant differences in material flows at both the disaggregated and aggregated levels. An important follow-up question is whether these differences are also relevant for other footprints.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Rodrigues2020,

title = {Drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in the European Union 2000–2015},

author = {Joao F. D. Rodrigues and Juan Wang and Paul Behrens and Paul Boer},

doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2020.110104},

issn = {18790690},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},

volume = {133},

number = {February},

abstract = {Carbon emissions from electricity generation in the EU have dropped from 1198 MtCO2 in 2000 to 970 MtCO2 in 2015, after an initial increase to 1304 MtCO2 in 2007. This pattern reversal is not only explained by socioeconomic drivers (an initial period of robust economic growth followed by weaker growth) but by profound shifts in the energy system. This study quantitatively evaluates the drivers of carbon emissions from EU electricity generation during two subperiods, 2000–2007 and 2007–2015. In 2000–2007 the main drivers of the decrease in carbon emissions were changes in the fossil fuel mix (replacement of coal by gas) and improvements in the efficiency of electricity use. In 2007–2015 the main drivers of the decrease in carbon emissions were the expansion of renewable electricity, improvements in the efficiency of fossil electricity production and improvements in the efficiency of electricity use. There is significant variation in the drivers of change among countries. The authors expect the continued expansion of renewables to balance economic growth in the future.},

keywords = {Carbon emissions, Decomposition analysis, Electricity sector, EU countries},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Usubiaga-liano2020,

title = {Energy use in the global food system},

author = {Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liano and Paul Behrens and Vassilis Daioglou},

doi = {10.1111/jiec.12982},

issn = {15309290},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},

volume = {24},

number = {4},

pages = {830–840},

abstract = {The global food system is a major energy user and a relevant contributor to climate change. To date, the literature on the energy profile of food systems addresses individual countries and/or food products, and therefore a comparable assessment across regions is still missing. This paper uses a global multi-regional environmentally extended input–output database in combination with newly constructed net energy-use accounts to provide a production and consumption-based stock-take of energy use in the food system across different world regions for the period 2000–2015. Overall, the ratio between energy use in the food system and the economy is slowly decreasing. Likewise, the absolute values point toward a relative decoupling between energy use and food production, as well as to relevant differences in energy types, users, and consumption patterns across world regions. The use of (inefficient) traditional biomass for cooking substantially reduces the expected gap between per capita figures in high- and low-income countries. The variety of energy profiles and the higher exposure to energy security issues compared to the total economy in some regions suggests that interventions in the system should consider the geographical context. Reducing energy use and decarbonizing the supply chains of food products will require a combination of technological measures and behavioral changes in consumption patterns. Interventions should consider the effects beyond the direct effects on energy use, because changing production and consumption patterns in the food system can lead to positive spillovers in the social and environmental dimensions outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals.},

keywords = {energy footprint, energy use, food system, industrial ecology, input–output analysis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{JuuditOttelinHaleCetinauy2020,

title = {Rebound effects may jeopardize the resource savings of circular consumption: evidence from household material footprints},

author = {Juudit Ottelin and Hale Cetinay and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abaa78},

issn = {17489326},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {15},

number = {10},

abstract = {The circular economy model aims to reduce the consumption of virgin materials by increasing the time materials remain in use while transitioning economic activities to sectors with lower material intensities. Circular economy concepts have largely been focussed on the role of businesses and institutions, yet consumer changes can have a large impact. In a more circular economy consumers often become users—they purchase access to goods and services rather than physical products. Other consumer engagement includes purchasing renewable energy, recycling and using repair and maintenance services etc. However, there are few studies on whether consumers actually make these sorts of consumption choices at large scale, and what impacts arise from these choices on life-cycle material consumption. Here we examine what types of households exhibit circular consumption habits, and whether such habits are reflected in their material footprints. We link the Eurostat Household Budget Survey 2010 with a global input-output model and assess the material footprints of 189 800 households across 24 European countries, making the results highly generalizable in the European context. Our results reveal that different types of households (young, seniors, families etc) adopt different circular features in their consumption behaviour. Furthermore, we show that due to rebound effects, the circular consumption habits investigated have a weak connection to total material footprint. Our findings highlight the limitations of circular consumption in today's economic systems, and the need for stronger policy incentives, such as shifting taxation from renewable resources and labour to non-renewable resources.},

keywords = {circular economy, Material footprint, Rebound, Sharing economy, Sustainable consumption},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Qian2020,

title = {China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050},

author = {Yuan Qian and Laura Scherer and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111856},

doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111856},

issn = {03014215},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Energy Policy},

volume = {147},

number = {April 2019},

pages = {111856},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

abstract = {Coal is the dominant emitter of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in some countries, comprising ~92% of total emissions in China. Mitigation of these emissions can be driven by a number of factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements, installation of scrubbers, and use of renewable energy. This study evaluates the historical reduction of overall SO2 emission intensity from coal consumption for 30 Chinese provinces between 2000 and 2016. These trends are further combined with expected coal use from 2020 to 2050 along with scenarios of future power generation to explore China's future SO2 emissions. The results show that provinces starting with a high emission intensity in general have higher reduction rates. By 2050, China's potential SO2 emissions are between 3.9 Mt and 4.1 Mt, and industry mitigation efforts, such as the installation of scrubbers, appear to contribute most to abatement. Additionally, this study estimates the impact on global average temperatures from SO2 mitigation due to the adoption of renewables in the electric sector using the MAGICC model and find an increase of ~0.01 °C by 2050. Considering the reduced abatement opportunities of desulfurization technologies and climate change effects of coal combustion, renewable energy provides the most promising option for SO2 mitigation.},

keywords = {climate change, Desulfurization technologies, Energy scenarios, Energy transition, SO2 emission reduction},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Yuan2019,

title = {Driving forces of household carbon emissions in China: A spatial decomposition analysis},

author = {Rong Yuan and Joao F. D. Rodrigues and Paul Behrens},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.110},

issn = {09596526},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

volume = {233},

pages = {932–945},

abstract = {China has strong policies to increase consumption and rebalance the economy away from capital investments. Since the total household carbon emissions (HCEs) grew 19% between 2007 and 2012, the study of driving forces from the spatial perspective provides insights into meeting these policy goals. To understand how to reduce HCEs across China, we analyze the driving factors of urban and rural household carbon emissions (HCEs) in 30 provinces in 2012. We distinguish two emission sources: direct (e.g. combustion of coal in the home), and indirect (emissions occurring along the supply chain of goods and services consumed by households), and analyze five factors for both urban/rural and direct/indirect emissions: population, income per capita, emission factors (emission improvements in technology), energy/consumption structure (changes in consumption), and energy/consumption intensity. Moreover, we aggregate the first two factors as the ‘scale' effect and the latter three as the ‘effort' effect, and explore their decoupling relationship. We find that the scale effect from income and population was the major driver of high urban HCEs in most of coastal provinces, up to 222% higher than the national average. The high HCEs in non-coastal industrial provinces (e.g. Inner Mongolia) were due to the limited improvements in the effort effect, specifically limited technology improvements, up to 101% than the national average. Almost all urban areas in coastal provinces achieved strong or weak decoupling, with the northeastern, central, western provinces witnessing negative decoupling. Urban areas in the main industrial provinces (Hebei, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) showed the largest negative decoupling with values of −2.2, −3.0 and −2.7, respectively, due to a larger share of coal consumption and higher energy intensity within urban areas. Therefore, under the background of regional convergence, making larger efforts to reducing the HCEs in non-coastal provinces is critical for promoting a low-carbon transition in the household consumption.},

keywords = {China, Decoupling analysis, Household carbon emissions, MRIO model, Spatial decomposition analysis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}