Research

@article{Zhang2024,

title = {The climate opportunities and risks of improving building envelopes across 1,677 Chinese cities},

author = {Yufei Zhang and Mengyuan Dang and Chunli Chu and Paul Behrens and Peter Berrill and Xiaoyang Zhong and Rui Jing and Nuoa Lei and Hongyuan Jia and Lixiao Zhang and Chaofeng Shao and Eric Masanet and Meiting Ju and Lirong Liu and Weiqiang Chen and Zhi Cao},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100269},

doi = {10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100269},

issn = {29497906},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Cell Reports Sustainability},

volume = {1},

number = {12},

pages = {100269},

publisher = {The Authors},

abstract = {The global building sector consumes approximately 30% of final energy, making it crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation. International calls for enhancing building energy efficiencies are growing, focusing on strategies such as energy-efficient building envelopes through renovation and replacement of older structures, along with electrification and fuel switching. However, the energy-saving potential of these improvements remains uncertain due to the complex interplay of building stock characteristics and climatic conditions. Here, we diagnose the compound effects of envelope improvements and climate change on China's housing energy demand using a physics-based building energy model with fine spatial and temporal granularity, covering 1,677 sub-province-level cities. Our model shows that envelope improvements play very different roles in ameliorating climate change impacts on housing energy use across the country, highlighting the need for building climate-resilient energy supply and pursuing alternative energy efficiency strategies in less climate-resilient regions.},

keywords = {building energy, building envelopes, climate change, cooling demand, heating demand, stock dynamics, surrogate modeling},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zhong2021ab,

title = {Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060},

author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Mingming Hu and Sebastiaan Deetman and Bernhard Steubing and Hai Xiang Lin and Glenn Aguilar Hernandez and Carina Harpprecht and Chunbo Zhang and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112677 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123339 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.011 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107339 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127098 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sci},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26212-z},

issn = {20411723},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {12},

number = {1},

pages = {1–10},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

address = {Copenhangen},

edition = {1},

abstract = {Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.},

keywords = {Acoustic measurements, adaptation measure, Animal husbandry, Beach sampling, Beach sediment, beach sediment citizen science, Benefits, biodiversity impacts, biodiversity loss, Black carbon, capital investment, Carbon emissions, Caribbean, China, china-us trade conflicts, circular economy, Citizen science, climate change, CO2 emissions, CO2emissions, Community, Complex terrain, Concentrated solar power, Consultation, Consumption structure, countryside species-area relationship, Cress (Lepidium sativum), Decomposition analysis, Decoupling analysis, Desulfurization technologies, Economic and social impacts, Electricity generation, Electricity sector, Electricity system, Emission projections, energy footprint, Energy models, Energy scenarios, Energy systems, Energy technology, Energy transition, energy use, energy water nexus, Energy-water nexus, Environmental, Environmental impact, environmental inequality, Environmental Justice, Environmentally extended multiregional input-outpu, EU countries, Europe, Exposure concentration, Extraction, Feed-in tariffs, Feedback and spillover effects, Flow curvature, food system, Historical drivers, Household carbon emissions, Household GHG footprints, human development, Hybrid input-output analysis, Hydraulic unbalanced forces, hydro-turbine governing system, Hydroelectric generating systems, Income inequality, Industrial CO2 emissions, industrial ecology, Input-output analysis, input–output analysis, international trade, Investment, Investment and opportunity costs, Land, Land degradation, land-use intensity, Learning curve, Lesser Antilles, Lidar observations, Lidars, Life cycle assessment, Low-carbon electricity technology, Material footprint, Mathematical model, Method standardization, Microplastics, Mineral resources, Mining, Modal interactions, MRIO model, Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis, Multi-regional input-output model, multiregional input-output analysis, Nano- and micron-sized plastics, Non-fossil electricity, Operational, Perceptions, Plastic pollution, Policy goals, Poverty, Power density, power generation, Power plants, Power transmission, Primary crops, Public transit, Rebound, Remote sensing, renewable energy policy, resource efficiency, Responsibility Sharing, Sectoral analysis, Sharing economy, SO2 emission reduction, Socio-economic impact, Sodar, Solar energy, Spatial decomposition analysis, Spatial impact, Spatially explicit, Standard operating procedure, Sublethal impacts, Subnational, Subsystem input-output model, Sustainable consumption, techno-economic evaluation, Terrestrial systems, thermal emissions, Urban-rural differences, Urbanization, Vascular plant, Vulnerable passengers, water basin, water consumption, Water footprint, Water scarcity, Wind, Wind energy},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Qian2020,

title = {China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050},

author = {Yuan Qian and Laura Scherer and Arnold Tukker and Paul Behrens},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111856},

doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111856},

issn = {03014215},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Energy Policy},

volume = {147},

number = {April 2019},

pages = {111856},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

abstract = {Coal is the dominant emitter of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in some countries, comprising ~92% of total emissions in China. Mitigation of these emissions can be driven by a number of factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements, installation of scrubbers, and use of renewable energy. This study evaluates the historical reduction of overall SO2 emission intensity from coal consumption for 30 Chinese provinces between 2000 and 2016. These trends are further combined with expected coal use from 2020 to 2050 along with scenarios of future power generation to explore China's future SO2 emissions. The results show that provinces starting with a high emission intensity in general have higher reduction rates. By 2050, China's potential SO2 emissions are between 3.9 Mt and 4.1 Mt, and industry mitigation efforts, such as the installation of scrubbers, appear to contribute most to abatement. Additionally, this study estimates the impact on global average temperatures from SO2 mitigation due to the adoption of renewables in the electric sector using the MAGICC model and find an increase of ~0.01 °C by 2050. Considering the reduced abatement opportunities of desulfurization technologies and climate change effects of coal combustion, renewable energy provides the most promising option for SO2 mitigation.},

keywords = {climate change, Desulfurization technologies, Energy scenarios, Energy transition, SO2 emission reduction},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Scherer2018b,

title = {Trade-offs between social and environmental Sustainable Development Goals},

author = {Laura Scherer and Paul Behrens and Arjan Koning and Reinout Heijungs and Benjamin Sprecher and Arnold Tukker},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.002},

doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.002},

issn = {18736416},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science and Policy},

volume = {90},

number = {October},

pages = {65–72},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to improve the lives of people, increase prosperity, and protect the planet. Given the large number of goals, interactions are inevitable. We analyse the interaction between two social goals (related to SDG1 Poverty and SDG10 Inequality) and three environmental goals (related to SDG13 Carbon, SDG15 Land, and SDG6 Water). We use a trade-linked, consumption-based approach to assess interactions in 166 nations, each subdivided into four income groups. We find that pursuing social goals is, generally, associated with higher environmental impacts. However, interactions differ greatly among countries and depend on the specific goals. In both interactions, carbon experiences smaller changes than land and water. Although efforts by high- and low-income groups are needed, the rich have a greater leverage to reduce humanity's footprints. Given the importance of both social and environmental sustainability, it is crucial that quantitative interactions between SDGs be well understood so that, where needed, integrative policies can be developed.},

keywords = {climate change, Income inequality, Land degradation, Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis, Poverty, Water scarcity},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Information2017,

title = {Climate change and the vulnerability of electricity generation to water stress in the European Union},

author = {Paul Behrens and Michelle T. H. Vliet and Tijmen Nanninga and Brid Walsh and Joao F D Rodrigues and D Rodrigues and Michelle T. H. Vliet and Tijmen Nanninga and Brid Walsh},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.114 http://10.0.4.14/nenergy.2017.114 https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017114#supplementary-information http://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017114},

doi = {10.1038/nenergy.2017.114},

issn = {2058-7546},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-07-01},

journal = {Nature Energy},

volume = {2},

number = {July},

pages = {17114},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Thermoelectric generation requires large amounts of water for cooling. Recent warm periods have led to curtailments in generation, highlighting concerns about security of supply. Here we assess EU-wide climate impacts for 1,326 individual thermoelectric plants and 818 water basins in 2020 and 2030. We show that, despite policy goals and a decrease in electricity-related water withdrawal, the number of regions experiencing some reduction in power availability due to water stress rises from 47 basins to 54 basins between 2014 and 2030, with further plants planned for construction in stressed basins. We examine the reasons for these pressures by including water demand for other uses. The majority of vulnerable basins lie in the Mediterranean region, with further basins in France, Germany and Poland. We investigate four adaptations, finding that increased future seawater cooling eases some pressures. This highlights the need for an integrated, basin-level approach in energy and water policy.},

keywords = {adaptation measure, climate change, energy water nexus, power generation, renewable energy policy, water basin, Water scarcity},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}